July’s report will be closely followed as analysts look for signs of wage inflation as well as an indication of business and worker confidence. The Federal Reserve is tapping on the breaks to dampen anticipated, but not yet evident, wage inflation.
Pleasanton, Calif. (PRWEB)
August 03, 2017
As an economist and seasoned staffing industry professional, Steven Drexel is regularly asked to participate in several monthly surveys and discussions that predict key elements of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (“BLS”) press releases describing The Employment Situation. On Friday August 4th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”) will release its monthly summary of labor market activity covering June 2017.
“I expect that July produced 190,000 net new jobs and a stable unemployment rate at 4.4 percent. July’s employment related economic releases suggest that the labor market remains healthy — but employment growth will be slower than the outsized increase reported last month,” comments Drexel. “The average monthly rate of job growth so far this year has been about 180,000 jobs. I believe that July will be stronger than average, but below the 200,000 threshold that has been breached four times during 2017.”
Drexel reveals that indications suggest that demand remains strong but supply is increasingly restrained (as signaled by the low unemployment rate). “The current expansion remains consistently slow but remarkably long-running. The cumulative impact of this long-running expansion is a tightening labor market and gradually, but not yet evident, increasing wage pressure,” he explains.
Drexel points to the following detailed evidence to support his considerations:
Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims were flat to slightly improved during July. Both metrics have been on a profound long-term favorable trend, recent results suggest that July’s employment growth should remain strong.
- The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index improved during July and the differential between “jobs plentiful” versus “jobs hard to get” was a net 16.1 during July, up from 13.6 during June. July’s differential was the highest…