NOAA Forecasts Easy Harvest
Sep 22, 2017
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 22, 2017.
Grain markets continue to monitor recent harvest results ahead of the weekend. This will continue into next week until traders turn their attention to next Friday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report.
Harvest Reports from Farmers: We will be happy to share them on this report. Email to firstname.lastname@example.org or call 800-262-7538.
Kendall County, IL: 80 acre field of beans cut yesterday, 70bpa across the scale. Better than farm anticipated as was very dry in August. Similar to last year yields.
Rosharon, TX: 160 acres early beans, 64 bu/acre, avg is 40-early beans, rest being cut in October.
Rolfe, IA: First 180 acres Corn on corn – Yield right at 170 bu/acre adjusted for moisture, which is 20-22%. Same farm made 203 bu/acre last year.
Weekly export sales report for the week of September 7 through 14 reported corn sales of 526,867 tonnes, under the 700,000 – 1,000,000 trade expectation. USDA’s export goal this year is 1.850 billion. That would be 7% under the average of the sales over the past four years. Current year to date sales are 434 million bushels. That is 16% under the 518 million four year average sale pace.
Soybean sales came in at a very large 2,338,141 tonnes. These are all for the current crop year, and far above the 1,2000,000 – 1,500,000 trade expectation. USDA’s goal this year is for a record 2.250 billion bushel export. As of the 14th, we have sold 710 million bushels. That is behind the 810 million five year average and last year’s 865 by this point.
Wheat sales were reported at 307,214 tonnes. That was within the 300,000 – 500,000 trade expectation. USDA’s whole-year export goal is 975 million bushels. That would be just over the 968 million bushel four year average. Current year to date sales, since the June 1 start of the US wheat marketing year, come to 481 million bushels.
NOAA’s monthly update to the long term weather forecast suggests no problems for harvest. October is seen with above normal temperatures for most of the WCB and all of the Northern border states. Precipitation is expected below normal for the central cornbelt states. This would suggest a good dry down and easy harvest.
European Union soybean imports in the 2017/18 season that began on July 1 had reached 2.5 million tonnes by September 19th, down…