Hurricane Track Being Monitored Closely
Sep 08, 2017
Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 8, 2017.
Grain markets consolidate ahead of the weekend and next Tuesday’s USDA report. The path of Hurricane Irma will be watched closely for an impact on crops/livestock production along the east coast.
Weekly export sales will be released this morning at 7:30 AM CDT, one day late due to Monday’s holiday. Analysts are expecting combined old crop/new crop corn sales of 650,000 to 1,200,000 tonnes, soybeans of 500,000 to 1,000,000, and wheat sales of 350,000 to 550,000.
Average analyst estimates from Reuters for next Tuesday’s USDA report are 168.2 bpa for corn yield and 14.035-billion-bushel total production. Harvested corn acres are estimated at 83.428 million. Soybean average estimates are 48.8 bpa and a total crop of 4.328-billion-bushel. Harvested soybean acres are estimated at 88.752 million.
Weekly ethanol production was reported at 1.060 million barrels of ethanol were produced in the latest week (Aug 26 – Sep 1). That was a strong finish for the year at 6.2% over last year. With the old crop year now over, Allendale estimates ethanol production during this time ran 4.16% over last year.
European Union soybean imports for the current 2017/18 season totaled 2.05 million tonnes as of September 5th according to EU data. This number is 27% below this same timeframe last year.
Abiove’s general secretary suggests 2018 Brazilian harvested soybean production may fall but exports will push up to 65 million tonnes.
Russia’s Customs Ministry reported wheat exports from January through July at 12.802 million tonnes. That would be up from last year’s 10.885.
Managed money funds were estimated sellers across the board yesterday. Traders estimate they sold 9,000 corn contracts, 3,000 soybeans, 4,500 wheat, 2,000 soymeal, and 4,000 soyoil.
JPMorgan estimates Brazil ag equipment shipments are 7% under last year. Of that, combine shipments are down 29%.
End users are not buying normal cattle near term delivery too aggressively. Over the past three weeks the 22 – 60 day delivery orders are 57% over last year.
Beef exports in July were good at 239.368 million lbs. That was 11% over last year. In the two previous months, May and June, they were 3% and 12% over last year. Imports, however, increased to now a 62 million lb. deficit. That is an increase over…