BRAZIL: 3Q17 GDP Growth Disappoints

(Agencia CMA Latam) – Despite advancing for the third consecutive quarter, Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew less than expected between July and September of this year, rising only 0.1% over the second quarter, said the country’s statistics office. Analysts expected a 0.3% growth.

Compared to the third quarter of 2016, Brazilian GDP advanced for the second quarter (+1.4%), in line with market expectations.

Brazilian GDP rose 0.6% in the first nine months of this year but fell 0.2% in the 12 months through September. In gross figures, GDP totaled R$ 1.641 trillion (US$ 503.13 billion) in the third quarter of the year.

The agricultural sector weighed on the third quarter GDP performance compared to the second quarter with a 3% output drop, but had a 9.1% annual growth.

Capital Economics’ chief emerging markets economist Neil Shearing said the GDP’s timid growth in Q3 is not as bad as it seems at first glance. On the positive side, he mentioned the industry’s 0.8% growth on a quarterly basis and the positive GDP revision in the first and second quarters of the year.

According to the revised data, the Brazilian economy remained stable in the first quarter of the year, (-0.4% in the original reading), and grew by 0.4% in the second quarter (+0.3% originally) compared to the same periods in 2016.

According to the IBGE, the review seeks a more comprehensive analysis, incorporating new annual national accounts weights of two years before, updates in data series and, if necessary, methodological improvements. In this sense, the institute also reviewed the performance of 2016, with the drop in GDP going to 3.5%, from 3.6% originally.

by Agencia CMA Latam

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